by Jim Parker, Vice President

The current renewed volatility in financial markets is reviving unwelcome feelings among many investors—feelings of anxiety, fear, and a sense of powerlessness. These are completely natural responses. Acting on those emotions, though, can end up doing us more harm than good.

At base, the increase in market volatility is an expression of uncertainty. The sovereign debt strains in the US and Europe, together with renewed worries over financial institutions and fears of another recession, are leading market participants to apply a higher discount to risky assets.

So, developed world equities, oil and industrial commodities, emerging markets, and commodity-related currencies like the Australian dollar are weakening as risk aversion drives investors to the perceived safe havens of government bonds, gold, and Swiss francs.

It is all reminiscent of the events of 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sub-prime mortgage crisis triggered a global market correction. This time, however, the focus of concern has turned from private-sector to public-sector balance sheets.

As to what happens next, no one knows for sure. That is the nature of risk. But there are a few points individual investors can keep in mind to make living with this volatility more bearable.

Remember that markets are unpredictable and do not always react the way the experts predict they will. The recent downgrade by Standard & Poor’s of the US government’s credit rating, following protracted and painful negotiations on extending its debt ceiling, actually led to a strengthening in Treasury bonds.

Quitting the equity market at a time like this is like running away from a sale. While prices have been discounted to reflect higher risk, that’s another way of saying expected returns are higher. And while the media headlines proclaim that “investors are dumping stocks,” remember someone is buying them. Those people are often the long-term investors.

Market recoveries can come just as quickly and just as violently as the prior correction. For instance, in March 2009—when market sentiment was last this bad—the S&P 500 turned and put in seven consecutive of months of gains totalling almost 80 percent. This is not to predict that a similarly vertically shaped recovery is in the cards this time, but it is a reminder of the dangers for long-term investors of turning paper losses into real ones and paying for the risk without waiting around for the recovery.

Never forget the power of diversification. While equity markets have had a rocky time in 2011, fixed income markets have flourished—making the overall losses to balanced fund investors a little more bearable. Diversification spreads risk and can lessen the bumps in the road.

Markets and economies are different things. The world economy is forever changing, and new forces are replacing old ones. As the IMF noted recently, while advanced economies seek to repair public and financial balance sheets, emerging market economies are thriving.1 A globally diversified portfolio takes account of these shifts.

Nothing lasts forever. Just as smart investors temper their enthusiasm in booms, they keep a reserve of optimism during busts. And just as loading up on risk when prices are high can leave you exposed to a correction, dumping risk altogether when prices are low means you can miss the turn when it comes. As always in life, moderation is a good policy.

The market volatility is worrisome, no doubt. The feelings being generated are completely understandable. But through discipline, diversification, and understanding how markets work, the ride can be made bearable. At some point, value will re-emerge, risk appetites will re-awaken, and for those who acknowledged their emotions without acting on them, relief will replace anxiety.

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1. World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2011.

Last week we came across an “Economic and Policy Watch” update prepared by a major investment bank that reviewed recent government proposals to address the nation’s funding crisis. Titled “It Just Gets Worse,” the report chided policymakers for actions that “look like a poor cover for loose money, rising inflation, and fiscal problems,” and warned that “government financing needs are corrupting monetary policy.” As a result of these ill-advised tactics, the bank had turned “more negative” on the outlook for financial stability and saw “little hope of improvement in the inflation/currency mix.”

Amidst the barrage of news coverage from dozens of sources probing the US debt/default/downgrade issue, such a conclusion might seem unremarkable. We found it of interest because the focus of the report was not the US Treasury but the government of Indonesia, and it appeared over a decade ago, on July 16, 2001.

Indonesia’s sovereign debt rating at that time placed it firmly in the “junk” (non-investment grade) category: B3 from Moody’s and single-B from Standard & Poor’s. Although Moody’s upgraded Indonesia to a B2 rating in 2003 and to Ba1 in early 2011, at no time over the past decade was Indonesia deemed to merit an investment grade rating.

What has been the experience of equity investors in Indonesia since this report was published? The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 415.09 on January 16, 2001, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished that day at 10,652.66. On Wednesday, the Jakarta Composite closed at 4,087.09 and the Dow at 12,592.80. If the Dow Jones Average had kept pace with Indonesian stocks over the past decade, it would be over 104,000 today.

Investors in Indonesia have had their share of ups and downs over the years, and markets fell even harder than the US during the financial crisis, with a peak-to-trough loss of nearly 60%. But the recovery was sharper as well: The Jakarta Composite recouped all of its losses by April 2010, and the all-time high on July 22 this year was 45% above the high-water mark of early 2008.

For the ten-year period ending June 30, 2011, total return as computed by MSCI was 29% per year in local currency and 33% in US dollar terms. At no point throughout this period did Indonesia have an investment grade rating for its sovereign debt, and outside observers continue to find fault with the country’s troublesome level of corruption, primitive infrastructure, and unpredictable regulatory apparatus.

We are not suggesting that investors should dismiss the effects of a US government credit downgrade. US Treasury securities are so widely held around the world that any potentially destabilizing event is worrisome. Nor are we suggesting that investors focus solely on countries with low credit ratings. Just as a broadly diversified portfolio includes companies with high and low credit quality, investing in countries with both high and low ratings is equally sensible.

Some might say the strong performance of Indonesian stocks over the past decade was at least partly attributable to the nation’s improving credit profile, even if it remained at a relatively low level. The US, in contrast, appears to be deteriorating. Our point is that a low credit rating in and of itself is not necessarily a death sentence for equity investors. Citizens of triple-A countries behave much like those living in single-B territory—they eat, drink, shop, get stuck in traffic jams, chatter on mobile phones, and check their Facebook pages. (Indonesia claims the second-largest number of members in the world.) Companies doing business in either location generate cash flows, and investors do their best to evaluate what those cash flows are worth. A triple-A sovereign debt rating is no guarantee of superior equity market returns, and a “junk” rating is no assurance of failure. A diversified strategy will have exposure to both.

Research assistance by Victoria Choi.

Ray Farris, “It Just Gets Worse,” ING Barings Economic and Policy Watch, January 16, 2001.

“Global Credit Research,” Moody’s Investors Service, March 2004.

“Missing BRIC in the Wall,” Economist, July 21, 2011.

Securities data provided by Bloomberg.

Yahoo! Finance, finance.yahoo.com (accessed July 25, 2011).

Ken French

In this video, Kenneth French explains why lower economic growth may not hinder future stock returns. In fact, history shows that average returns tend to be higher during periods of economic difficulty. The information about a current recession is factored into stock prices, and investors may require a higher expected return to induce them to take higher perceived risk.

This video takes about 5 1/2 minutes: Should Investors Fear the “New Normal?” Ken French is always worth listening to.

Retirement Dollar

The need for retirement planning doesn’t end with the onset of retirement. A new retiree’s focus shifts from building wealth to managing and preserving it. One major challenge is to make the investment portfolio supply cash flow for the duration of life—and through different economic and market conditions.

Experts have studied portfolio longevity or endurance to help retired investors reduce the odds of depleting their wealth too soon. The studies evaluate how a portfolio might endure under the stress of changing markets and spending levels. The resulting models estimate portfolio survival in terms of statistical probabilities.1 While the technical details are beyond the scope of this article, the general conclusions are more intuitive.

Three main factors drive portfolio endurance: asset mix, spending level, and investment time frame. Certain aspects of these factors are within an investor’s control while others are not. Let’s briefly consider them.

Asset Mix for Retirement

Asset mix describes the ratio of stocks to bonds in a portfolio. This determines risk exposure and expected performance, and is one of the most important decisions investors of all ages can make. Historically, stocks have outperformed bonds and outpaced inflation over time. This return premium reflects the higher risk of owning stocks.2 Consequently, the larger the equity allocation, the greater a portfolio’s expected return—and risk.

Keep in mind that risk and return go together. A higher allocation to equities increases the risk of experiencing periods of poor returns during retirement. But if you can handle the risk, having more equity exposure in a portfolio enhances its return potential. Growth can bring higher cash flow, inflation protection, and portfolio endurance over time. This is why most advisors believe that most investors should have an equity component in their portfolios, with actual weighting depending on one’s time frame, risk tolerance, and spending flexibility.

Spending Level During Retirement

Portfolio withdrawal is typically described in terms of a specified dollar amount (e.g., $50,000 per year) or a percent of annual portfolio value (e.g., 5% of assets each year). Neither method is ideal, however—and for different reasons. Briefly consider each one:

•    Specified dollar amount:  withdrawing a fixed amount each year and adjusting it for inflation can provide a stable income stream and preserve your living standard over time. But the portfolio may survive only if future withdrawals represent a small proportion of the portfolio’s value. One academic study quantified this amount. It found that a retiree with at least a 60% stock allocation can withdraw up to 4% of initial portfolio value (adjusted for inflation each year), and enjoy a high probability of never running out of wealth.3 Choosing a higher withdrawal amount is not likely to be sustainable, especially if the portfolio faces an extended period of negative returns.

•    Percent of annual portfolio value: withdrawing a fixed percentage of assets based on annual asset value makes it unlikely that you will deplete retirement assets because a sudden drop in market value would be accompanied by a proportional decline in spending. But this method can produce wide swings in your living standard when investment returns are volatile.

Retirees who need relatively consistent cash flow may want to combine these two methods. One way is to withdraw cash flow according to a rule that combines past spending (e.g., an average of the past thirty-six months of cash flow) with a payout rate applied to current portfolio value. You can weight these factors to favor your preference for either more stable cash flow or a greater chance of portfolio survival. In effect, you are customizing your withdrawals to smooth out consumption while responding to actual investment performance.

Investment Time Frame for Retirement

Investment time horizon may be the hardest to estimate, especially if it is the same as your lifespan. In this case, you can only guess how long your portfolio must support spending. If you plan to bequeath assets, your investment time frame may extend beyond your lifetime. This may influence your risk and spending decisions as well.

Time frame forces a tradeoff between the short and long term. Retirees with a longer investment time horizon might choose a higher exposure to equities. But they may have to offset this risk by being more flexible about spending over time. Elderly retirees and others with a short time horizon may choose a less risky allocation or a higher payout rate, although they can experience rising spending levels, too. In any case, retirees should think carefully about equity exposure and avoid taking more risk than they can afford.

Considerations During Retirement

Planning involves assumptions about the future—assumptions that may not pan out. Although you cannot avoid making assumptions, you can ask whether they are realistic and consider how your lifestyle might change if future economic and financial conditions are much different than projected. For instance, you may assume an average return based on historical performance. But there is no certainty that future portfolio returns will resemble the past, regardless of time frame. Moreover, short-term results may vary drastically, which could force hard financial choices. Investors should think in terms of probability, not history.

Managing asset mix, payout, and time horizon inevitably involves tradeoffs. Exhibit 1 below illustrates the dynamics. For example, a bond-dominated portfolio with a lower expected return may suit investors with a shorter time horizon, or require them to accept a lower payout rate to increase the odds of portfolio survival. A portfolio with a higher allocation to equities may be appropriate for someone with a long time horizon or a strong desire for a high payout rate, but a higher assumption of risk also results in greater uncertainty about future wealth. Retirees who take this route must be able to handle the risk emotionally, and they should be ready to adjust their lifestyle in response to market downturns. In fact, investor flexibility plays a role in all of the tradeoffs.

Basic Trade-offs in Portfolio Survival

Finally, although you cannot fully control these and other factors involved in portfolio endurance in retirement, having more wealth can improve the odds of having a less stressful financial life. A more substantial nest egg might enable you to take fewer risks, enjoy a higher sustainable spending rate, or extend the productive life of your portfolio during retirement.

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Endnotes:
1 Cooley, Philip L., Carl M. Hubbard, and Daniel T. Walz. 1998. “Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable,” AAII Journal 20: 16–21. Also see: Bengen, William P.  1994. “Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” Journal of Financial Planning 7: 171.

2 From 1926 to 2009, the S&P 500 Index returned an average 9.8% per year compared to 5.4% for long-term government bonds and 3.0% inflation. Sources: Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group for S&P 500 Index; long-term government bonds and inflation provided by Stocks, Bonds, Bill, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates.

3 Cooley, Hubbard, and Walz, Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable,” 16–21.

This article was provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities.

Navigating Structured Products

by Brian Harris, Senior Editor, Dimensional Fund Advisors

In recent years, structured products have gained favor among retail investors in Europe and the US. Investment banks promote these securities as sophisticated tools to help investors manage downside risk, enhance returns, or achieve other investment objectives.

Sales have grown briskly since 2006, and despite a decline after the 2008 market crisis, some industry sources expect a rebound in sales and a flurry of new products in the future.1 With this in mind, it may be useful to understand how the products work and to evaluate the costs, benefits, and tradeoffs before considering one in your investment strategy.

Basic design of structured products

A structured product is a contract that promises to pay a future amount based on the performance of an underlying asset, such as a stock, market index, or commodity. The payoff is typically linked to a preset formula. Most structured products are designed to either preserve capital or enhance returns, and are typically issued as notes.2 The notes offer a specific payout over a designated period or at maturity, and the final payout depends on the performance of the underlying asset as well as the value of the derivatives written on it. Since the product typically is issued by an investment bank, the investor is exposed to the credit risk of that entity.

One common product, a principal-protected note, generally offers a minimum return equal to the original investment, plus a potential return tied to performance of an underlying asset, such as a stock market index. If the index drops during the term, the investor gets his money back, but if the index rises, he may receive the upside gain, but usually only a part of the underlying asset’s gain. Structured products can be replicated by portfolios composed of an interest-bearing instrument, such as a certificate of deposit or zero-coupon bond, equity securities, and options or other derivative securities whose performance is linked to the underlying index.3

The following summarizes a few common characteristics of structured products:

•    Complex design: Most products have a complex design, which can make analysis of pricing, risk exposure, and potential outcomes more difficult. Some investors equate this complexity with higher potential returns, when, in fact, it may only mask high fees and risk. Worse yet, investors may not understand the range of possible outcomes. During the 2008 market crisis, some investors learned a hard lesson when the issuing firm went bankrupt or when their structured product experienced losses from poor performance of the underlying asset.

•    Substantial cost: These products tend to carry a significant markup and costs that in some cases are difficult to quantify, especially if an investor lacks the technical knowledge to analyze the underlying components of the strategy.

•    Replication: The payoff of virtually any structured product can be replicated in a portfolio by holding the underlying securities, then buying or selling derivatives written on those securities. In many cases, the costs associated with the replication portfolio are much lower than the structured product itself.

•  Tradeoffs: In return for receiving a prescribed payout, investors must accept a tradeoff in the form of a lower return and/or limited upside potential. When evaluating a structured payout, remember that there is no free lunch in the risk-return tradeoff. To pursue higher expected returns, you must accept more risk. If you do not want to bear the risk, you must transfer it to other investors and pay them for taking it.

•    Multiple Risks: First, there are the inherent risks of the underlying security (e.g., the stock or index). Investors also are exposed to credit risk of the issuing firm. The contract is an agreement with the issuer to make a pre-determined payment in the future, and thus, it is contingent on the firm being able to deliver. Liquidity risk is another issue. Although many structured products are listed and traded on exchanges, they may be difficult to sell, especially in a volatile market. To avoid a potential liquidity problem, investors should consider the time horizon of the product and attempt to match its maturity to their anticipated financial need or objective.

• Tax considerations: It is also important to check tax consequences. Some instruments may have certain appeal under the current tax rule. But, often, tax consequences differ according to the investment situation (e.g., whether one buys at the issuance or in the secondary market).

Who might benefit?
A structured product might help an investor who needs a specific payout at a designated point in the future and who is willing to pay another party to shoulder much of the uncertainty. But this benefit generally comes at the expense of lower yield or limited upside potential.

One example may be an individual who currently holds restricted company stock whose value may account for a significant portion of his total wealth. Although he might prefer to diversify this exposure, company rules may prohibit a sale until some future date. A structured product might provide protection against the downside risk of the company’s stock (even though this might mean giving up the upside potential of the stock), and at the same time, provide better-diversified exposure to an equity index, such as the S&P 500.

Perhaps most important, investors who are considering a structured product should consider why they even need a highly structured payoff in the future—and if so, whether the payoff can be structured by other means in the portfolio. In many cases, the strategy can be replicated at a lower cost, and perhaps with less risk. Many investors would prefer an alternative that is less complex and more transparent. And as the recent credit crisis taught many investors, it is wise to avoid investing in things you do not understand.

Endnotes

1 Larry Light, “Twice Shy on Structured Products?” Wall Street Journal, May 28, 2009.

2 A reverse convertible bond is one example of a yield enhancement tool. It pays investors a higher coupon rate than other comparable bonds due to its higher risk. This risk comes in the form of the issuer having the option to pay off the debt with either cash or a predetermined number of common stock shares. The method of payment at time of maturity will depend on the stock price, and the issuer will pay with common stock when it is advantageous to do so. The reverse convertible bond was popular until the last market crisis, when many investors experienced heavy losses when they were paid off with lower-value stock shares.

3 A call option provides the holder the right to buy the underlying security at a given price at a certain time in the future. A put option provides the holder with rights to sell the underlying security at a pre-specified price on maturity date. (American-style options can be exercised before the maturity date, whereas European-style options can be exercised only on the maturity date.) An option holder will exercise the put or call option only if the payoff is positive.

Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This material on structured products is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities.

Great, actually. The Emerging Markets asset class is the most volatile broad asset class there is. How was the performance last year when it seemed the whole world was going down the toilet during the first quarter? Here are the returns for four discreet Emerging Markets mutual funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors:

Fund Name                                            Symbol         2009 Total Return
DFA Emerging Markets Core              DFCEX                    83.58%
DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap     DEMSX                   99.74%
DFA Emerging Markets Value            DFEVX                    92.28%
DFA Emerging Markets Portfolio       DFEMX                    71.77%

Were these highly concentrated portfolios with great stock picking? No. These are all very broadly diversified passively-managed asset-class funds. The chart below shows approximately how many stocks were in each of these funds during 2009. The interesting fact here is that the most concentrated (which cannot, under anyone’s analysis be considered a concentrated portfolio) was the poorest performer – if you can call a one year return of 71.77% poor.

Fund Symbol         Approx. Number of Stocks
DFCEX                                         2719
DEMSX                                        2100
DFEVX                                         1924
DFEMX                                          640

Sure, these guys had downside movement during 2008 commensurate with the upside in 2009. This indicates in stark relief the value of sticking with your asset allocation model and then rebalancing the portfolio. Those who did so over the past couple of years are back to being whole again or close to it.

So what is the take away here? Volatile asset classes, purchased broadly and managed passively, and rebalanced appropriately will enhance the risk adjusted returns of an investment portfolio and put more money in an investor’s pocket over time. It requires discipline during excruciatingly painful market moves, and it pays off.
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Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Dimensional funds carefully before investing. For this and other information about the Dimensional funds, please read the prospectus carefully before investing. Prospectuses are available by calling Dimensional Fund Advisors collect at (310) 395-8005; on the internet at www.dimensional.com; or, by mail, DFA Securities LLC, c/o Dimensional Fund Advisors, 1299 Ocean Avenue, Santa Monica, CA 90401. Mutual funds distributed by DFA Securities LLC.

There are other good reasons to approach the topic carefully. Market efficiency and its offspring, passive investing, are counterintuitive for many investors. It is human nature to believe that one can beat the market (or identify someone who can) through intelligence, insight, and hard work. This belief is constantly reinforced by Wall Street and most of the mainstream media.

Even though some may characterize Dimensional’s approach as passive, it is only passive with respect to activities that don’t add value—mainly stock picking and market timing. One could argue that Dimensional is very active, however, in managing important considerations such as frictional costs and consistent exposure to targeted risks or asset classes.

Here are some examples of framing:

• We don’t speculate. We invest.Rather than relying on speculation, blind faith, or anecdotal evidence, our philosophy rests on a solid foundation of core principles from the science of investing.
• With capitalism there is always a positive expected return on capital.Capital markets are very competitive due to voluntary exchange between buyers and sellers. There is a buyer for every seller; for markets to clear, prices will adjust to new information and reach a level where there is always a positive expected return to providers of capital. Investors would not risk their capital without the expectation of a positive return. We invest in an approach that strives to capture a fair share of the capital market return based on the risk assumed.
• It is difficult to identify superior investment managers in advance.Capitalism breeds competition, and that makes markets difficult to beat. With millions of participants competing in capital markets, it is hard to identify in advance anyone who can systematically beat the market since past winners may have just been lucky and won’t necessarily win in the future. We eliminate the risk of choosing the wrong manager by following a broadly diversified approach that does not rely on stock picking or market timing.
• Diversification is the only antidote for uncertainty.Although diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market, a properly constructed and well-diversified portfolio is a key component of a successful investment experience. We design portfolios that attempt to capture certain risks and eliminate others, depending on your preference and capacity for various types of risk.
• There is no free lunch. Risk and return are related.Higher expected returns only come from bearing more risk that cannot be diversified away. Much like a football player who chooses to play without a helmet, you should not expect to be paid more for taking risks that can easily be avoided. We focus on eliminating risks that you should not expect a reward for taking, such as concentrating your portfolio in just a few stocks.
• Control what you can.If speculation is futile, and trying to choose winners is more often a loser’s game, what can an investor do? The answer is to concentrate on what can be controlled: managing the transactional costs of investing, reducing the impact of taxes, and taking a long-term view. We implement portfolios in a way that is cost effective, tax efficient, and above all, disciplined.

Market efficiency and the active or passive decision are loaded with misconceptions that can lead to debate and confusion rather than constructive dialogue and understanding. More importantly, it can distract our attention from the most crucial element of all: discipline!

The studies comparing dollar-weighted returns to time-weighted returns are widely known, and behavioral research has documented the propensity for individual investors to skate to where the puck was (instead of where it is going). A decision to invest in an active, indexed, or Dimensional approach can often be differentiated in basis points, while percentage points often gauge the impact of an undisciplined or emotional decision unchecked by an advisor’s sound counsel.

This type of behavior is obviously hazardous to an investor’s wealth; therefore, we should attempt to determine if one of these alternative strategies has been able to mitigate some of these actions.

The charts below show the monthly cash flow into all equity funds (foreign and domestic) in the US , along with the prior twelve-month global equity market return. Cash flow bars that vary with, or more closely follow, the prior year return line could suggest more return chasing behavior among the investors within that universe of funds.

Source: ICI

Source: ICI Index is not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Source: Dimensional

A simple “eyeball” analysis of this anecdotal data suggests that investors in active mutual funds apparently were more influenced by short-term performance than those who held index funds, and advisors (and clients) who invested in Dimensional funds exhibited the most consistency.

The biggest difference between index funds and Dimensional relating to investor behavior may be the requirement for independent advice from a fee-only advisor. If part of the recipe for a successful investment experience is to stay the course, the advisor is the key ingredient to educating investors and keeping them disciplined through good times and bad.

The comments of Robert Dintzner are greatly appreciated.

Many thanks to Brad Barber for providing the ICI data.

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¹Dimensional cash flow data includes US, Canadian, UK, and Australian domiciled funds.

Dimensional Fund Advisors (“Dimensional”) is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the opinions of Dimensional. The opinion of the author is subject to change without notice. All materials presented are compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or endorsement of any of the products or services described in this website.

The previous column in this series focused on some theoretical aspects of market efficiency and offered points to help lead investors toward your passive corner. As they begin to march in this direction, however, other questions based on practical, if not emotional, considerations may arise. The following responses may reinforce their conclusion that a passive strategy provides the best odds of success.

Q: If there will be managers who beat the market, who cares if there are no more than would be expected by chance? We only need to pick one!

A: As explained in the previous column, equilibrium accounting presents a dilemma for active managers. We know that for every winner there must be a loser because active management is a zero sum game (before costs) relative to the market. This is due to the adding-up constraint, which infers that market returns must reflect all investors who collectively participate in the market. Therefore, the essence of the active-passive decision is to determine whether one can identify the active management winners in advance.

As I mentioned, there aren’t any more winners in this zero sum game than you would expect by chance, so the real issue is whether you can distinguish luck from skill among the past winners in an attempt to find managers who will win in the future.

There is a large volume of literature on this subject, and the conclusions generally point toward very little persistence in the superior returns of past winners. There may indeed be skillful managers, but the data is too noisy for us to pull them out of the sample that includes a large number who just got lucky. Your assumption should be that ex-ante, the expected alpha (or performance relative to the market return for a given level of risk) of any manager is negative, regardless of past performance.

Here’s another way to think about it. If you find a manager who was in the top quartile in the past, that manager has a 25% chance of being in the top quartile in the future. Unfortunately, so does every other manager, with the exception of those who charge extraordinarily high fees or have extremely high turnover, as research shows that high-cost and high-turnover managers are more likely to persistently underperform the market, net of fees and expenses.

Q: But I just read a report showing how the average manager outperformed in all the prior bear markets! Doesn’t that suggest the zero sum game did not apply in those periods?

A: These types of reports often suffer from two deficiencies. First, they usually fail to adjust for survivorship bias, which would impact the results dramatically. For example, the latest Standard & Poor’s Index versus Active (SPIVA) report indicates that survivorship in the most recent five-year period was 44.9% for Canadian equity funds.¹ If more than half the funds in Canada didn’t survive the last five years, imagine how small the sample of survivors would be today for the 1980-82 bear market. Drawing conclusions from such a small sample of survivors would be like attending a World War II fighter pilot convention and concluding that being a World War II fighter pilot results in longevity because everyone at the convention was over 80 years old. Unfortunately, that conclusion would not account for those who did not survive!

The other problem is the results in these types of reports are often equally weighted rather than asset weighted. Although it is generally instructive to show both, an equally weighted average does not reflect the actual outcome investors experienced. This is analogous to buying ten stocks but putting $91 in one stock and $1 in each of the other nine. An equally weighted return calculation would not fairly reflect the portfolio’s actual performance.

Q: Maybe in aggregate active managers won’t beat the market. But can’t they help protect me on the downside and smooth out the ride?

A: The zero sum game means it is mathematically impossible for active investors to collectively win in a down market, as the adding-up constraint holds regardless of the direction the market takes. As William F. Sharpe states in his article “The Arithmetic of Active Management,” “These assertions will hold for any time period. Moreover, they depend only on the laws of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Nothing else is required.”²

It is no coincidence that passive strategies began to attract interest from US institutional investors in the summer of 1975. Many had suffered sharp losses in the 1973-74 bear market, despite employing active managers who claimed to offer capital preservation during difficult markets. The poor performance of actively managed strategies during the recent 2008-09 downturn provides additional evidence that, on average, active managers simply raise costs and do not provide superior performance in bear markets.

Q: An active manager incurs significantly higher costs for things like data sources, model development, research, and company visits. Don’t these added costs justify the higher fees associated with active management?

A: Higher fees cannot be justified because of the higher costs involved with active management unless you apply the logic Patrick Ewing used during the NBA work stoppage. In an interview following a collective bargaining session, he was asked to defend the escalation of player salaries to extraordinary levels, to which he responded, “People got to understand that we make a lot of money, but we spend a lot too!” The question is not are the costs of active management higher to the manager, but are the net benefits of active management higher to the investor? As we’ve discussed, the answer seems to be NO.

Q: ETFs and other passive strategies also charge fees. Wouldn’t these fees guarantee that an investor will underperform the market?

A: All investment strategies have costs, so the gross market return is not achievable for investors. Consequently, costs should be a factor when considering different passive strategies, and just because a strategy is passive doesn’t mean it is cost-effective. However, when you adjust for risk, the net return for the aggregate of all passive portfolios is higher than the net return for the aggregate of all active portfolios by roughly the difference in frictional costs. This is not a theory but a tautology, and it must hold every instant!

So, it is accurate to say that in aggregate passive strategies are guaranteed to underperform the market (even when adjusting for risk) by the amount of their frictional costs. But another way of looking at it is to say that the vast majority of active strategies will underperform by even more. Consequently, the odds are in your favour that the passive strategy beats the active one, even though it is guaranteed to underperform the market.

Q: Passive investing relies on the benefits of diversification. But does diversification even work anymore, given that everything seemed to go down in value at the same time, with passive strategies going along for the ride?

A: Although diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market, it can help eliminate company specific (or unsystematic) risk in a portfolio. However, you cannot diversify away systematic risk, and this is what caused the market decline and drop in value of broadly diversified passive portfolios. Fortunately, systematic (or compensated) risk is the only form of risk you should expect to be rewarded for, and the only way to reduce it is to invest in a portfolio with lower expected returns.

However, contrary to what you may think, diversification has been more important than ever. Company-specific risk has increased significantly recently, and this is risk you can eliminate through diversification. It is also risk that you should not expect a reward for bearing!

When we diversify, we give up the opportunity to concentrate our portfolio in the best-performing investments in return for the assurance of avoiding overexposure to the worst-performing investments. Diversification continued to work during the most recent downturn. Although diversified equity portfolios experienced sizable declines, the losses in many widely held stocks were catastrophic—and in some cases irreversible. In addition, high-quality fixed income securities performed very well during the downturn, illustrating the important role of fixed income as a diversifier in balanced portfolios.

Q: Passive investing is a buy-and-hold approach, but does buy-and-hold really work considering investors didn’t make any money for the last decade if they just bought the whole US equity market and held it?

A: It is true that US equity investors have not been rewarded in the last ten years, but this is the risk you must accept as an equity investor in exchange for higher expected returns relative to less risky alternatives like US Treasury bills. If the risk never materialized, even over long horizons, it would be an arbitrage opportunity and the higher expected returns would not persist.

Investors shouldn’t be happy with the results over this period, but what is the alternative? If the alternative to a buy-and-hold approach is a trading strategy, the results likely would have been worse. Once again, the zero sum game’s adding-up constraint means that the only way to profit from your trading strategy is at someone else’s expense. You may get lucky, but chances are you will simply be adding more risk, higher transaction costs, and higher taxes to your portfolio while increasing uncertainty and broadening the range of possible negative outcomes in the future.

Moreover, if you’re contemplating pursuing stock picking as an alternative to buy-and-hold then you may want to consider Jim Davis’ recent analysis of all US stocks going back to 1926. He concluded that the best-performing stocks each year had a pronounced effect on the overall market return. The compound return on all US stocks from 1926-2008 was 9.4%. If you eliminate the top 10% of performers each year, the compound return drops to only 6%, and if you eliminate the top 25% of performers, your compound return goes down even further to an astonishing -1%.

Simply put, if you excluded the very best performing quartile of stocks each year, you would have lost money investing in equities over a period of more than eighty years! The implications of this finding are daunting for stock pickers, given that when you buy a stock—or continue to hold one you have already bought—there is a 75% chance each year that it will fall outside the universe of winners that accounts for all of the market’s return.

William Bernstein commented on Jim’s finding as follows.

“This may get you thinking: If a small list of securities accounts for the market’s long-term returns, why not avoid all the headaches and losses you’ve suffered recently by carefully choosing these super stocks? Simple: Because a portfolio of ‘carefully chosen’ equities could easily wind up with none of the best-performing stocks in the market—and thus produce flat or negative returns over many years . . . Remember that the point of investing isn’t to aim for the highest possible returns. It’s to make sure you don’t die poor. Yet trying to optimize your performance by seeking out the needles in the haystack is a sure way of becoming, well, poor.”³

Q: Aren’t passive strategies like ETFs best suited for do-it-yourself investors who don’t value expert advice?

A: The premise of passive investing is that no value can be added from stock picking or market timing. Passive investing doesn’t imply there is no value in expert advice. Most fee-based advisors focus on wealth management rather than stock picking or market timing. Wealth management is based on holistic advice revolving around things you can control, such as saving, spending, taxes, costs, risk management, risk budgeting, asset allocation, communication, and reinforcing discipline. The right passive investments fit very nicely in this framework, and the complexity of passive alternatives supports the need for professional advice.

Q: You make some good points, but I don’t fully grasp all of this and I’m not completely convinced. What is the bottom line?

A: Let’s say markets are in fact inefficient, that there are managers who do persist in outperforming, and that you don’t like the idea of indexing. The bottom line is that none of these points would really matter. Here’s why:

• If the market is inefficient, then the aggregate of all investors will still underperform a market rate of return by the amount of frictional costs (fees, trading costs, taxes, etc.). This is due to the adding-up constraint at work in equilibrium accounting.

• If there are superior managers, I have no way to identify them in advance and neither does anyone else.

• If you don’t like the idea of indexing, then let’s invest in passive funds that can address many of the flaws in merely tracking a conventional index.

The only question that matters is whether you, or someone you know, can reliably identify enough superior-performing investments, in advance and after costs, to outperform a market rate of return. The answer is probably NO! So let’s at least put the odds of success in your favor.

Investing is risky enough to begin with. Why add another layer of risk with no expected return?

For the first article in this series go to Active vs Passive: Man vs Market

________________________________________________________________________________________

The comments of Sam Adams and Weston Wellington are gratefully acknowledged.

¹ Standard & Poors, Index versus Active Funds Scorecard for Canadian Funds, June 4, 2009, 5.

² William F. Sharpe, “The Arithmetic of Active Management,” Financial Analysts Journal 47, no. 1 (January/February 1991): 7-9.

³ William J. Bernstein, “Are Stocks a Loser’s Bet?” CNNMoney.com, May 9, 2009, http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/09/magazines/moneymag/stock-strategies.moneymag/index.htm (accessed July 15, 2009).

Bradley G. Steiman is Director, Head of Canadian Financial Advisor Services  and Vice President for Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC. This is the first of a three part interview series on the age old debate of Active vs Passive investment strategies.

Q: If an active manager can gather information and gain insight or knowledge through research into a company, shouldn’t he be able to beat the market?

A: Not necessarily. You and I could have a different set of information or a different interpretation of the same information, while other investors may have no information at all. However, neither of us is at an advantage or disadvantage because the aggregate of all information is already contained in prices. So, rather than gaining insight or knowledge, the manager is simply gathering information the market has already digested. One way to look at it is that in order to beat the market with skill rather than luck, you don’t just need to have more information and insight than the “average” investor. You theoretically need to have more information and insight than all investors combined. An active manager has only two arrows in his quiver—market timing and stock picking. All nuanced forms of active management ultimately boil down to some combination of these two elements. Both fundamentally rely on predicting the future, and the information presented in support of the forecast is typically quite compelling. Statements are made such as “we think the price of oil will rise because . . .” or “we think the economy will recover next year because. . . .” No matter how convincing the case may seem, however, you should always ask why this information that is readily available to the market would not already be reflected in prices.

Q: It seems reasonable to conclude that the US market is fairly efficient since most of the studies in this area have relied on US data. But do these arguments break down in less developed markets where local knowledge can still play a role?

A: It is true that many studies of market efficiency focus on the US, but this is due to data availability and reliability. This does not mean that other markets cannot be as efficient, but only that tests have not been conducted to the same extent in other countries. Furthermore, the US studies originated in the ’60s, and it seems reasonable to assume that most markets are now at least as efficient as the US market was over forty years ago. It is also plausible that investors in emerging markets face greater uncertainty with regard to political developments, currency trends, and so forth. But this says nothing about market efficiency. Security prices reflect local knowledge in both developed markets and less developed markets, but the evidence from mutual fund investing in emerging markets suggests that professional managers find it just as difficult, if not more so, to outperform passive strategies in emerging markets as they do in developed markets. The active manager’s real challenge is found in the principle of “equilibrium accounting.” Since passive investors hold the market, the aggregate of all active investors must hold the market, too. Consequently, active investors cannot earn more, in aggregate, than passive investors, and both groups will earn the market return minus fees and expenses. Since active management typically generates much higher fees and expenses, the aggregate returns are lower than those of passive investors. Some active managers may outperform the market, but their success comes at the expense of other active investors. Consequently, active management is a zero sum game before expenses—and a negative sum game after costs. This adding-up constraint exists in markets around the world, whether developed or emerging.

Q: Less developed markets have fewer participants. Does the lack of competition reduce market efficiency?

A: The question of how many active investors are required for a market to be efficient is an interesting one, and the comments on this topic from Richard Posner are worth contemplating.

“No one knows just how much stock picking is necessary in order to assure an efficient market, but comparisons with other markets suggest that the required amount is small. In markets for consumer durables, homes and other products, unlike the securities markets, the amount of search is highly variable across consumers, many of whom do little or none; trading may not be frequent; products may not be homogenous (no two homes are as alike as all the shares of the same common stock); bids and offers may not be centrally pooled so as to maximize the information available to buyers and sellers. Yet these markets are reasonably efficient, albeit less so than the securities markets.”

John H. Langbein and Richard A. Posner, “Market Funds and Trust Investment Law II,” American Bar Foundation Research Journal 1 (1977).

To visualize this in a simple example, let’s imagine that someone is having a garage sale after cleaning out his parents’ attic. Among the seemingly useless artifacts just happens to be an original Van Gogh painting. The seller doesn’t know it’s a masterpiece, so he sets the price at an ambitious $10. If the buyer also doesn’t know it is authentic, he will pay $10 and potentially profit from good luck if he eventually realizes what he has acquired. On the other hand, if the buyer is an art connoisseur, he will pay $10 but profit immediately from what you could call skill due to his information asymmetry over the seller (i.e., he knows it is worth a lot more but the seller does not). However, what if one more art connoisseur is attending the garage sale? At that point the price is unlikely to remain at $10 if both buyers know it is an original Van Gogh, and the eventual purchase price will rise to something much closer to fair market value. It no longer matters that the seller doesn’t have all the information because as long as both buyers have the information, neither can use this information asymmetry to gain advantage over the seller. In this story, it took only two informed market participants to strike fair value, and not all market participants needed to have all the information for prices to become much more “efficient.” As Ken French has described, markets theoretically contain an “efficient amount of inefficiency” where the marginal benefit of active investing equals the marginal cost. In reality, the incentives mentioned earlier have attracted far more active investors than necessary for market equilibrium, so the aggregate cost seems to far outweigh the benefit. This idea is relevant to less-developed markets because these markets typically impose much higher frictional costs on investors. If the costs are higher, the “efficient amount of inefficiency” would also theoretically be higher, which would limit opportunities to systematically profit from active investing, net of these costs.

Q: How could the market remain efficient if everyone were a passive investor and no one was gathering information and trading on it?

A: The Grossman-Stiglitz paradox (Sanford Grossman and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, 1980) says that if a market is informationally efficient—that is, all information is already reflected in prices—then no single agent will have sufficient incentive to acquire the information on which prices are based. If we assume markets are not perfectly efficient, the question is how much inefficiency exists and how many market participants can successfully exploit it? In equilibrium, the marginal cost of researching mispriced securities would just equal the marginal profits associated with exploiting these pricing errors. But studies of active manager performance offer compelling evidence that we have far more resources devoted to analyzing opportunities than we need to keep markets efficient. How do we know this? Because managers in aggregate not only fail to recoup their research costs, they underperform by an even greater degree. The argument that too much passive investing would hinder price discovery has been raised repeatedly since the advent of the index fund in the 1970s. The irony is that one of the most frequent criticisms of a passive approach is to ask what would happen if everybody adopted it. Unfortunately, after nearly four decades since passive investment vehicles became available, we are still nowhere near a point where the preponderance of passive investors would affect price discovery. If we were fortunate enough to reach that point, and the market became less efficient as a result (it is not clear that it would), then active investors would reenter the market until the marginal benefit of active investing would not exceed the marginal cost. Richard Posner summed it up perfectly in 1977:

“If the disinvestment of resources now employed in futile attempts to beat the market ever proceeds to the point where the market can be beaten, that will be a signal for some investors to resume the active strategy.” “The optimum amount of market information is surely not infinite. At some point, the cost of additional information must outweigh the social gain. The evidence is that this point has been reached—in fact, passed.”

John H. Langbein and Richard A. Posner, “Market Funds and Trust Investment Law II,” American Bar Foundation Research Journal 1 (1977).

Q: If market efficiency implies prices are right, then doesn’t the fact that some stocks being 80%-90% below the level they were priced at a year ago challenge this fundamental premise? Which was the right price—today’s price or the one a year ago?

A: The short answer is that both prices were probably wrong, but both prices were also your best estimate of the right price! Market efficiency is not based on the premise of prices being “right” but on them being your best estimate of fair value. All prices may be wrong; but for markets to be inefficient, the errors would have to be systematic and identifiable. You, or your active manager, must also be able to identify these errors when other investors cannot, since your profit must be at someone else’s expense. Not every investor can win in a zero sum game! However, the mistakes are mostly random rather than systematic (some prices are too high and others are too low), and there is little persistence in the ability of active investors to exploit these pricing errors. Besides, the fact that prices can change dramatically is not a sign of market inefficiency. This is a reflection of how quickly prices can adjust to a new equilibrium based on the latest information. Furthermore, there is a dilemma facing active investors who believe that pricing errors are identifiable for profit at the expense of someone else. If the price is wrong today, how can one be sure the market will eventually arrive at the “correct” price in the future? Is the market inefficient today but efficient tomorrow, or is there a chance an investor will go to his grave as the only one who knows the right price?

Q: How can you say active managers won’t beat the market when I just read about XYZ Investment Company, which has outperformed for the last twenty years?

A: We can’t say there aren’t any active managers who have beaten the market in the past, and we can’t say there won’t be any active managers who will beat the market in the future. What we can say is there haven’t been, and likely won’t be, any more than you would expect by chance. The problem isn’t that there are managers who have beaten the market; it is that there are too few of them! Let’s assume there were 5,000 funds available for investment over this twenty-year period. The 95th percentile of the distribution of outcomes from this sample (i.e., the top 5%) would represent 250 managers with a twenty-year history of generating returns that are significantly above market. At that point, you may be thinking, “what more proof do I need than 250 managers over twenty years?!” What you need to consider, however, is that if you had 5,000 proverbial monkeys managing portfolios by throwing darts at stock pages, you might observe even more than 250 who would have generated returns that put them in the top 5% of manager returns net of fees. Why? Because as David Booth likes to say, the monkeys work for bananas! The monkeys would have clearly been dismissed as just being lucky, even over a twenty-year period. However, many investors are unwilling to dismiss the superior returns of an even smaller number of managers as being largely due to luck over the same time frame. I can’t say for sure that it is all luck, but what I can say is that the outcomes don’t look much different than if there were no skill at all. For many investors, hope springs eternal, but we are going to invest your money assuming it was mostly luck, because that assumption at least puts the odds of success in your favor. As a result, your example of XYZ should only be viewed as anecdotal evidence, and we do not want to implement an investment strategy on that basis. Let’s say you had a very serious illness for which a doctor was prescribing treatment. Would you be comfortable following a treatment plan if you asked the doctor for the basis of his diagnosis and he responded, “it worked for my last patient”? Probably not, as you likely want to hear about years of scientific tests examining the whole distribution of possible outcomes, both in and out of sample, as outlined in top-tier medical journals subject to intense scrutiny, refereeing, and peer review. The basis for my prescription of a passive investment strategy rests on this type of scientific inquiry in the field of finance rather than on anecdotal evidence. The tests have been done and they are well documented. Unfortunately for many investors, the subjects of these tests are not lab rats, but real people with real money!

Brad’s future columns will address questions on the practical implementation of active and passive strategies.

The comments of Sam Adams and Weston Wellington are gratefully acknowledged.

For the next article in this series go to Active vs Passive: Real World Issues